Apple to Report Earnings After Nov 2 US Market Close; Market Expects Share Price Swing at Twice the Historical Average
29/10/2569 04:10:01
Bollcoin, Oct 28: Saxo Bank analysis says Apple will report earnings after the US market close on Nov 2, with the options market pricing an implied move of about 4.3% in the stock. Based on the Oct 27 close of $347.10, at-the-money calls and puts expiring Nov 4 with a $347.5 strike total about $14.98, implying a share price range of roughly $332–$362. By comparison, Apple's average next-day move after its past 8 earnings reports was about 2%, with declines in 6 of them and the largest drop at 7.4% in July this year. Options expiring Nov 13 imply a further widening to 5.2%. This means the market has already priced a high premium for earnings risk; if the actual move falls short of expectations, buying options can still lose money even if the direction is called correctly — option buyers profit only if the stock move is large enough to cover the premium.